Það sem ég hef aðstönda er að fylgjum var náttúrulega skeptík í 1994.Það er þá eitthvað, að það er einhverju hlut og ég þútt að það er ekki þátt að það er það.Ef þú hlut að það er ekki þátt að það er það, þá þá þátt að það er það.Það er eitthvað, þá þá þátt að það er það.Ég hef hlut að það er ekki þátt að það er ekki þátt að það er ekki þátt.Ég hef hlut að það er ekki þátt að það er ekki þátt að það er ekki þátt.Ég hef hlut að það er ekki þátt að það er ekki þátt að það er ekki þátt.Ég hef hlut að það er ekki þátt að það er ekki þátt.Ég hef hlut að það er ekki þátt að það er ekki þátt að það er ekki þátt.Ég hef hlut að það er ekki þátt að það er ekki þátt að það er ekki þátt.Ég hef hlut að það er ekki þátt að það er ekki þátt að það er ekki þátt.Ég hef hlut að það er ekki þátt að það er ekki þátt að það er ekki þátt.Ég hef hlut að það er ekki þátt að það er ekki þátt að það er ekki þátt.Ég hef hlut að það er ekki þátt að það er ekki þátt að það er ekki þátt.Ég hef hlut að það er ekki þátt að það er ekki þátt að það er ekki þátt.Ég hef hlut að það er ekki þátt að það er ekki þátt að það er ekki þátt.Ég hef hlut að það er ekki þátt að það er ekki þátt að það er ekki þátt að það er ekki þátt.Ég hef hlut að það er ekki þátt að það er ekki þátt að það er ekki þátt.Ég hef hlut að það er ekki þátt að það er ekki þátt að það er ekki þátt að það er ekki þátt að það er ekki þátt.brexit-referendum og hvaða polarísið það er og það erfyrirveikilega með því að það er fyrirreikilega með að hluti það að verður það að verður að verðaí þátturins. En ég hef vært stjórn að fyrir því að í Íslandi er það að það er það semer það sem hefur mjög okkur kjörnverði og mjög mjög manni í kampanjarinn,hvoreð í Norvegi þetta það séu að það séu að það er ekkert annars að við verðum að hafarefferendum þá, þannig að það séu að það sé að það er einhverja mjög mjög mjög mætt að fylgja fyrir migog á Norvigi, velja partir af politíkaleft er átkvæmd, þannig að þúri það um síðanpartir átkvæmd er velja átkvæmd.ever whereas here it's more nuanced parts of the or socialist parties are against andsome are for and so there are some interesting differences but also very many things thatare very similar in terms of how the discussion is taking place and how polarizing it is.innleksi discussions but imagine that the main issues are pretty similar but also thereare differences because the norwegian economy is bigger and the are lot of more people innorway, I also saw that Mimir Kristensson he is in Iceland and they are not big fansof the European Union are they just isn't it yes they are not and I have always foundthis to be very interestingbecause in the rest of Europetheir sister parties are verypro-EU, likealmost every single onebut in Norway, Röttand also SVwhich is the partythat's slightly to the right ofRött, but still socialistthey've been very againstsohis argumentsbasically center arounda combination ofindependenceand also describing the EUas aneoliberaleconomic projecta subscription service forbourgeoisiepoliticsbut what's interesting is thatthrough the European Economic Areawe already are subscribingto all those policiesso I don't knowhow they square that withyeahso in Norwayessentially theythe socialist partieswith Mimir Kristianssonand also SVas well as the Farmers Partyand the Right Wing Partyare againstandmaybe in part like the Christian Democratsright now as welland then you have Høyrewhich is like your independence partyand the Conservativesthey're very pro-EUand have always been pro-EUalso a key differenceandour left partylike our Liberal Partyis very pro-EUour Green Partyis very pro-EUand the Social Democrats areleaning probut not pro-referendumyesso like our Prime MinisterJonasis very pro-EU himselfbut he is very scepticalof calling for a referendumbecause he knows aboutwhat would be the consequences of thatfor our partyand I mean you don't want to call a referendumyou're going to losethat's just very basicyeswhich is alsoit's been in the discussion herebecause people have been thinkingbecause you have this coalition ofthe coalition of theLiberalLiberal-EUsort of party in Veristand the Social Democrats of coursebut also in hereboth now and the last timewe had a referendum like thiswell then we didn't have a referendumon continuing talkswe just had a referendum onor we were going to have a referendumon the agreement that would come out of thembut in both casesone of the parties in the governmentis notis anti-EU accessionwhich is interestingand I've noticed thatthis has also been in the discussionin Europepeople are very surprisedat the strength of the NO campaignyeahand it's very interesting to hearthat Høyre is pro-EU in Norwaythat's sort ofhow would you say the biggestwhat would you say the biggest differences arein this debatebetween Iceland and NorwayI think thatthat is probablythat strikes at the heart of the biggest differencesin that ourourwhat would you call itthe corporations that representthe businessesor the organizations that representthe businessesthey are very pro-EUin generalsoHøyre is connected to those organizationsthey're both pro-EUbecause they see that as beingbetter to Norwegian businessesand we're probablythat probably has something to dowith the Norwegian economyalso being even tighterconnected to the EUespecially in terms offisheries and stuff like thatbutthenyou of course have thedifference in like theour Green Partyis exceptionally like forthe EU voteand that is an interesting differencebecause they see it asone of the primary ways offighting climate changejoining the EUand following EU regulationon climateyeahare they the sister party ofthe Left Greens hereor is thatyeskind ofI think maybeSVwould be the sister partyof the Left Greensbecause they aremaybe bothit's very interestingin the Left Greensthere's beenthey're kind of split it seemsyeahyou know the leadershiphas mostly beenand especially the old leadershipthey have basically all come outand said that they're against ityesbut I don'tI don'tI don't think that quiterepresents thethe partyor like the membersviewwhich iswhich is very interestingyeahand how about you talk aboutthe you know the organizationsthat represent the fisheriesand big business interestsyeahbut what about the labor unionsthe labor unions aretraditionally also very splitso if you go back to 1994in our last referendumthere wasI think there was something likea seven vote gapin the labor unionconferencethat decided whetherthey were going to be for or againstsomany theorized thatdue to thatvery very tiny gapwe ended upsaying noin the referendumyeahsotraditionallytheindustrial unionshave been very proindustryin the west coast of Norwayfor examplehave been very proand then you haveother unionswithyou knowvaried backgroundsbeing moremore againstand alsolike if youwere to dolike ageographical analysisyou knowthethethethethethethethethethethethethethethethethethetothiscityThat's also been very interesting to follow herebecause of course the farmerslike union or farmers organizationthey've been very explicitlyagainst itand the farmers generally in Iceland areagainst it and they always point tothe example ofthe Swedish and Finnish modelwhen you go up north and you can't growany wheat or barleyor something like that, you have to havepasturesthey talk about, do you have anyknowledge of that, of thefarmers worries about this in NorwayI thinktheargument that has been put forwardfrom the NO side in Norwayhas been verydoomsday likesaying thatNorwegian agriculturewill be ripped apart if we can'tsubsidizewhich I think is theprimary thing thatwe're afraidthat outside competitionwill makethose industries collapseand you will have local societiesthat are heavily relianton theonhaving people working in agriculturethat will be destroyedis essentially the argumentbecause Norwayhas been, and this is a key differencefrom Norway to for exampleSweden and Denmark, Norway isa very decentralized countryand has been spending a lot of moneyon keeping the countrydecentralized, somaintaining good public servicesin rural communitiesand soI think Norway has more of a pridein maintaining these communitiesand also people livingin cities who have moved fromrural parts of Norway have a strongloyalty to keeping thoseplaces aliveand soa large part of the argument from the NO sidehas been appealing to thefeeling, that sensation ofwanting to keep the districtsof Norwayalive and I thinkmaybe some of those concerns are a bitoverblown asthese arguments get more and moretense, often thetruth can bestretched quite a bitbut yeahthat's, I think that'sessentiallythe Norwegian take onagriculture in the EUHow about the fisheries?This is of courseprobably the biggest issuein the minds of Icelandic votersapart from just likeconsciousness issueslike feelings towards EuropeIcelandic independence and sovereigntythese are of course all probably the biggestthings that influence a voters mindbut the fisheries always play a big roleand the fisheries organizations are veryvery anti-EUand spend a lot of time, effortand money on promoting thatviewWhat is the Norwegian sort ofline, fisheries linein this?Well, from what I've understoodthe fisheries weresomewhat skeptical in1994but there is perhaps somemovement now and I thinkthatI think that ifIceland were to get someconcessions on fisherieswhich we kind ofdid get back in 1994 as wellwith our dealit essentiallyallowed us to keep ourfishing quotas and to keep many thingsas they were in Norwaybut if you get even more explicitconcessions from the EUthen I think the fisheries in Norwaywould be quite positiveI've heard some signals from theorganizations that they're looking atthis with great interestyeahbut I'mshouldn't speak on behalf of themNei, of course notbut this also brings us to thisvery interesting pointbecause justyesterdayKristoffer Rostadottir, the prime ministerand the leader of the Independence Partyhad a debatea panel debate here at SEENand quite some timewas spent on this of coursethe concessions, what is possibleand the argument on the other sideis of course that nobody hasever gotten these kinds of concessionsthey're not legally possibletechnically possibleand the yes side sayswell nobody has askedfor these kinds of concessionsbut then we hear some voices from Norwayfor instance Torbjörn Fosswho was in thewhat was his title againhehe had a rolein the Norwegian fishery departmentI think at some pointand then he was also a part of the negotiation teamfor thethe dealthat wewe voted onthe referendum in 1994because he had an article inMorgonblæð the other daywhere he was challenging whatHeidrun Lindtwhich is the sort of chairman of thebig fisheries organization herewas saying about thesethese concessionshe was saying thatat least it looked likeNorway couldachieve some sort ofquite big concessionsin the fisheries departmentwhat was going on there?well from what I understoodI thinkthe 1994 agreementthe way it was formulatedin ourthe treatywhich we would signin order to join the EUthere were formulationsthat would mean that we had concessionson fisheriesor would keep our current quotasand keep assigningour fishery quotasourselvesandandandandandandandand,because of itbeing in thetreatythat would make usjoin the EUthat hasa higherlegal standardthanthings being voted onin theEuropean Unionlawmaking systemsothat wouldas he saw itbea guaranteefor keeping those rightsalso in the futurethe Norway would have toNorway would have toaccept changes to thissort ofornosothe way that he saw itand the Norwegian legal teamsaw itthat would meanthat wekept our rightsmore or lessas they werewithyeahand I'm not a legal expertof coursesotake it with a grain of saltbutbut that's the way he saw itand the way we saw itand I thinkthat's a very reasonable argumentand thenthe head of yourfisheriesislobbyorganisationdisagreedbutI thinkthat alsowhenyour governmentorderedlegal expertsin Icelandto look into thisthat they allconcluded thattheNorwegian guywas rightI think soso Ithink there'sa very good chanceand theEuropean Commissionalso has saidthatthey're willingto giveconcessionslike thatsothenit sort ofrests oncountrieslike Spainand other onesthat arebut Iwouldn't thinkthat they'rethey would mindtoo muchbecausethen we'resort ofgoing intoyou knowjust theinternational politicsand that is of coursevery differentfrom legal questionsaboutconcessionsand these thingsthese things are of coursealwaysway more complicatedthan whatever iswritten on thepage that issignedbut this isdefinitelyinterestingand you getthe feelingthat you knowthat plentyof thingshave changedsince last timea lot of thingshave changedboth in theUNand Icelandand inNorwayof courseso thissort ofbrings metothe nextthing thatI want toask youaboutwhich isyou knowwhat happensifIcelandlikeif westartthenegotiationsandwhat happensif itlooksquite goodI meanumumit'sa veryinterestingquestionand that'spart ofthe reasonfor whyI'm herebecauseI'mI'mveryinterestedto seewhat happensalso forNorway'ssakeso ifyouend upnegotiatingand it'slooking goodyou willprobablysee a lotof activityfromNHOtheorganizationrepresentingNorwegiancompaniesyou willhave alot morepoliticalofficialsprobablyincreasingthe temperatureof thedebatecallingfor areferendumtheinterestingthingthoughis tosee howthesocialdemocratsreactand Ithinkthat willbekeyifyouweretostartanyreferendumitwouldhavetostartwiththesocialdemocratstakingastanceprobablysocurrentlyourprimeministerJonasJonasGarstørehe isquitepositivetojoiningtheEUhe'sactuallyverypositiveand hehasbeenfor alongtimehehasabackgroundworkingasabureaucratintheNorwegianDepartmentof ForeignAffairshe'sbeentheministerofforeignaffairsandhe'sveryfondoftheEUbuthe'sveryscepticalaboutcallingareferendumespeciallywhenthecurrentnumberssaysomewherearound37%aremaybeprojoiningand43%areagainstandthenyouhavealargepartwhichisundecidedandhealsoknowsthatwithintheSocialDemocraticPartymaybeyouhavearound60%thataresupportingyesbutyoualsohaveroughly40%thatareagainstor30%thatareagainstandwhathappenedlasttimein1994whichwasawhenthelaborunionsalsohadsuchanarrowdivideyousawthesamesplitswithinthelaborpartysolikethelaboryouthwereagainstyouhadlargepartsofthelaborpartyregionsthatwereagainstandthisfightingthisinfightingwasI meanit wasbadatthetimeforthelaborpartyandforthelabormovementandIremembergettingintopoliticsaround2020joiningtheyouthlaborpartyandseeingthatstillyouhadpeoplewhohatedeachotherduetobeingonoppositesidesoftheEUreferendumdebatewithinthelaborpartywhichwasin1994peoplewerestillrememberinglikealmost30yearslaterthebeefsthattheyhadbackthensostilllikefractionsfollowedtheoldEUlinesandsoIthinkinorderforthelaborpartytoeverlandonsayingokaylet'shaveareferendumyouwillneedtoseethepublicopinioneitherthepublicopinionmovea lotorthesituationgeopoliticallysecuritywisefortheeconomychangedrasticallyandthat'saninterestingquestionifyougetclearconcessionsonthefisheriesifyouendupjoiningwhatdoesNorwaydothenorifwesuddenlygetmassivetariffsfromtheTrumpadministrationwhatdowedothenandIthinkfundamentallyin orderforNorwaytoenduphavinganewreferendumIthinkwe'llprobablyhavetoseesomemajoreventhappensorightnowliketheNorwegianpopulationisn'tIthinkthegeneralknowledgelevelon theEUisquitelowpeoplearen'tit'slikepoliticalgeeksandcommentatorsthey'rethe oneswhocareabouttheEUwhereasnormalpeopleareyou knowtheycareaboutmorepoliticalissuestheirownpersonaleconomyit'snotaverybigsubjectfornormalpeoplerightnowbutifyouendupseeinglikeTrumpimpose50%tariffsonNorwayifwegofrombeingwhathedescribedasoneofthebestcountriesintheworldbeingoneofhisshitholecountriesthatmaybepeoplearegoingtochangetheirmindIcelandandNorwayarejustaloneoutinthemiddleoftheseaastheAtlanticsplitthat'snotasituationthatanybodywantstobeinandespeciallynotifIcelandgetssomeclearconcessionsthenthenocampaignonapotentialreferendumthatwouldbeamajorhitforthembecausetheuncertaintyisofcourseabigpartofthehesitationbothhereandIimagineinNorwaybecausepeoplesaywhyspendallthisridiculousamountofmoneyandstartchangingthingsinthebureaucracyifwe'rejustgoingtokeepthatclubgoingyeahandthisisalsobecauseyouhavetheEuropeanEconomicAreaandEFTAandwhatdoyouthinklet'ssayIcelandlookslikeit'sjoiningtheEuropeanUnionwhat'sthefutureoftheseorganizationsI meanthen youhaveNorwayandLichtensteinandthat'snot aclubyouwanttobeinsoundslikeLichtensteinwouldprobablylovetokeepthatclubgoingyeahIthinksonoIthinkthatduetoitbeingNorwaywewouldprobablybeabletokeepthatagreementbecauseoftheoilandgasresourcesbecauseofalltheelectricitythatNorwayissupplyingbutImeanitwouldstillitwouldprobablyraisesomequestionstherewouldbemaybetheEUwouldopenforsomenewnegotiationsregardingtheEAagreementImeanIcouldseeespeciallylikeifIcelandactuallyends upjoiningthentheEUwantstopressureNorwayintojoiningaswellsoyeahbutit'shardtopredictwhatwouldhappenIthinkyeahIthinkoneofthefactorsthatwillbeimportantforNorwayisalsothefactthatyouhavenowSwedenFinlandDenmarkandpotentiallyin thefuturealsoIcelandjoiningtheEUwithtighterintegrationonboththelegalsidelikelawenforcementcooperationyouhavemorecooperationonforeignaffairsissueswithintheEUtightereconomicintegrationsandat thesametimealsolikedefenseismaybeon thetableasbeinglikesomethingthat ismoredonethroughtheEUaswellandthenyouhaveNorwayontheoutsideofthatIthinkthat'ssomethingthat wewillbeseeinga lotmoreinthefuturethatastheworldbecomesamoredangerousplaceasyouhaveDonaldTrumpwealsoshareaborderwithRussiabeingontheoutsideoftheEUastheNATOalliancepotentiallydeterioratesor evendisappearsthat wouldbeverydangerousforNorwaysoyeahIwouldn'tput itpastustosuddenlyjointheEUifsomethingweretohappensomedramaticchangesinoursecuritysituationforexampleoksoifwemovedownfromthebigdoomsdaypredictionsandmoreinherenttoReykjavíkandwhat'sgoingonbecauseyou'vebeenandyou'vemetpeoplefromÞjáttalasjáuyou'vemetpeoplefromyou'regoingtomeetpeoplefromÞjáttalasjáurighthowhaveyoulikewhat'syourviewonwhat'sgoingonherewhat'sthevibeyou getfrompeopleyoutalktoI'vemetsomepeoplewhocan'tspeaktotheirparentsaboutthisatthedinnertableIthinkcurrentlyI'vemostlyspokentotheÞjáttalasjáupeopleandI thinkthere area lotof themthat arefrustratedwiththeothersidehavinga lotmoremoneytospendonpoliticalcampaignsandI thinkcampaignadsandstufflikethatalsoworriedaboutdisinformationbutremainingpositiveandoptimisticabouttheelectioningeneralIwouldsaythatatleastwhenImeetyouguysyouseemveryyouseemkindofchillandyou knowas ifit'seven thoughtemperaturesare highyou're notaggressiveit seemsand Iwas ata youthdebateyesterdayand thatalsoseemednow Icouldn'tunderstandwhat theywere sayingbut itseemedciviland itseemedlikealthoughyou knowpeople aredisagreeingvehementlythey'restillyou knowa levelofcommonrespectwhich isgood toseeand I'mveryexcitedto hearfromthenosideaswellandI'msuretheyhavetheirownsidetothatstoryaswellitisinterestingyou knowbecauseyou talkaboutthesortofproportionalcalmofthisIthinkit'sprobablyjustbecausethisissomethingthatlikeinNorwaynobodyreallythinksaboutuntilit'sonthetableImeanyouhavethesebigfeelingsandthesebigissuesoflikeyouknowselfidentityandthingslikethisbutit'sverymuchonthesortofedgeofpoliticaldiscussionhereinIcelandandIimagineitisinNorwaybutithasbeenveryinterestingto seeitbroughtupinnewlightsinachangingworldandIthinklikeyouweresayingearlierthattheseissuescooperationintegrationinmanydifferentandevenonwaysthatwehaven'tbeentakingpartinbeforethiswillbecomeabiggerissuegoingforwardandyeahhowdoyouthinkit'llgoonSaturdaywellI'veseenthatthere'saslightleadfortheyessideonthepollsbutifyoulookatsimilarelectionsinthelastfewyearsyou'veseenatendencyforalotofvotinggroupsthatlooka lotlikethepeoplewhoaregoingtovotenoonSaturdaythathaveoutperformedpollsliketheTrumpelectionswealsosawsimilareffectsinNorwaywithourrightwingpartyoutperformingthepollsbythreepercentagepointsorsomethinglikethatsothere'sthistendencymaybetomobilizea lotofwhat weinNorwaycalledsofavelgerelikesofasittingvoterspeoplewhodon'tnormallyvoteespeciallyaroundthesesortofantiglobalistveryhightensionissuessothequestionthenisisthatgonnasortofbeenoughtoputthemovertheyessidewhichisleadinginthepollsmaybeImeanpotentiallyyoucouldseeamajorupsetIthinkaveryinterestingpartImeanit'sbeensofascinatingtofollowtheyescampaignandthattheentirecampaignisbasedaroundyouknowbeingkindofchillandsayingyeswe'rejustgonnaseeandit'snotsomethingthatnecessarilybringsa lotofemotiontothetablesothequestionthenisarethepeoplewhoareopentosayingyeswhowouldliketoseewhat'sgonnahappeninnegotiationsaretheygonnaactuallyturnupandgoandvotedotheyhavethemotivationtodothatsomyfinalpredictionnosidetakesitbypercentagepointokayokayyeahIthinkit'saveryreasonablereasonablepredictionbutIdon'tthinkhonestlyIhaveanythingmoretotellyouIthinkthisisagoodfinalwordisthereanythingyouwouldliketogetintothatIhaven'tfiguredouttoaskyouIwouldjustliketosaytotheIcelandicpeoplethatIhopeIhaven'toffendedanyoneofyouandIwishyouallluckintheworldinfiguringthisoutandalsocomingoutontheotherendasaunitednationsoregardlessof theresultsonSaturdayIloveyouguys
